Thursday, April 20, 2017

News from Ontario's electricity bureaucracies, and more

A news day at Ontario's Electricity System Operator (IESO) and its nominal sector regulator, the Ontario Energy Board (OEB). 

The most anticipated news came from the OEB's announcement of rates to be introduced for May 1st. From the Regulated Price Plan Price Report | May 1, 2017 to April 30, 2018
...the OEB has historically included a portion of significant price changes that may occur in the forecast period because of the smoothing benefits for customers. [emphasis added]
In keeping with this practice, the OEB has considered it appropriate in this price setting to take into account a portion of the estimated impact of the government’s proposed Fair Hydro Plan. The OEB has done this by way of a reduction in the forecast amount of the Global Adjustment of approximately $1B, which represents 50% of RPP consumers’ estimated portion of the proposed refinancing of the Global Adjustment.
There's a lot of questionable assumption, some conflicting with other OEB practices, in this paragraph - but jumping to what will be of immediate concern to those only interested in immediate concerns...

The forecast average price prior to the OEB considering new government interference is $114.90 per megawatt-hour (MWh), or 11.49 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh), which is up about 3% from a year earlier (roughly the inflation rate). For sketchy reasons the OEB has reduced that average rate to $97.62/MWh (15%), reflecting their anticipation of what could comprise the government's boot the cost down the road (BCDR) plan  - also known by the government's spin as the Fair Hydro Plan.

The 1.7 cent/kWh reduction the OEB is making is half the cut in bill mock-ups by big new local distribution company Alectra from the very day the government announced the BCDR policy. It was as if they knew what was coming. Coincidentally the IESO today announced Peter Gregg as its new President and Chief Executive Officer, noting "recently he was President of Alectra Energy Solutions."

Sunday, April 9, 2017

Tribes and Sustainability Assessments

There is a lot of news to note regarding energy, environment and politics. This blog attempts to note such things on the assumption knowledge was important. Today it's probably more important to note that assumption is highly questionable. Hopefully I can write entertainingly so as to get readers through to the ridiculous conclusion of this post on sustainability science -ishness, and disposal of nuclear waste.

Some very quick background before discussing the fall-out from two reports put out over the past week from bodies attached to the federal Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change.

Canada's second Prime Minister Trudeau reportedly hand-picked Marlo Raynolds, a former head of the Pembina Institute (an industrial wind lobbying organization that has historically marketed itself as an environment organization), to be the head of staff for the lawyer, Catherine McKenna, appointed Minister on Environment and Climate Change. It would be hard to find two individuals to better characterize the stereotypical image of an "environmentalist" imagined by the all-important affluent, urban voter.

In August 2016 the Minister appointed a panel composed of bureaucrats and lawyers "to review and restore confidence in Canada's environmental and regulatory processes.The "Expert Panel" was headed by Johanne Gélinas, a former Canadian Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development. In 2007 The Toronto Star referred to her as "Environment Czar" in writing of her firing by a Conservative government. The article included, "John Bennett of the Climate Action Network said it was a sad day for the environment."

Knowing the personalities is really all one needs to know the conclusions, but since the rejection of expertise is, it seems to me, generally a malady attributed to those on the right skeptical of most apocalyptic claims, it may prove antidotal to review this other tribe's tripping.

This past week the Gélinas panel provided the report everybody expected them to - criticizing the processes of the previous government and suggesting more study and consultation, etc. The objects of those processes were pipelines and nuclear projects, making the bodies being judged the National Energy Board (NEB) and the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC).

The report's first priority is the need for a new acronym:
...We believe that Canadians deserve better and that it is entirely possible to deliver better.

... in our view, assessment processes must move beyond the bio-physical environment to encompass all impacts likely to result from a project, both positive and negative. Therefore, what is now “environmental assessment” should become “impact assessment” (IA). Changing the name of the federal process to impact assessment underscores the shift in thinking necessary to enable practitioners and Canadians to understand the substantive changes being proposed in our Report.
I can think of some barriers beyond the admittedly huge "EA" acronym/obstacle preventing practitioners, and Canadians, from understanding the substantive changes being proposed. Chief among them, a process discussion not being considered a vehicle for substantiation:
We also outline that, as we listened to presenters and read the many submissions presented to us, we came to understand that any new effective assessment process must be governed by four fundamental principles. IA processes must be transparent, inclusive, informed, and meaningful.
The current processes are transparent and inclusive - which is a problem in having them perceived as informed and meaningful. Professional agitators are participating specifically to avoid meaning being found through the process. Politics means this review existed solely because the existing process was introduced by a Conservative government, and therefore opposed by the Liberal party that later defeated it.

The major problem with the old EA process was it had outcomes the Liberal's allies (tribe) disliked.