Monday, December 22, 2014

Rethinking Ontario’s Long-Term Energy Plan

Readers of my original work won't be surprised I am urging people to read Marc Brouillette's commentary for the Council for Clean & Reliable Electricity.
My criticisms of Ontario's Long-Term Energy Plan noted emissions would increase and the capacity requirements (of NERC) would not be met. Brouillette notes both these issues, and covers the economics of the flawed "Quebec import" suggestion that is now broadly dismissed.

Rethinking Ontario’s Long-Term Energy Plan | CCRE Commentary (.pdf)
The 2013 Ontario Long-Term Energy Plan (LTEP) is a roadmap claiming to “provide clean, reliable and affordable energy Ontario will need now and into the future.” However, compared to other options in the 2010 LTEP it replaces, this 20-year plan represents a cost of $60 billion and 110,000 jobs to Ontario’s economy. As well, implementing this plan increases greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 50 per cent.
Figure 5 From CCRE Commentary (.pdf)

Why these serious downsides? For one thing, the plan places too much emphasis on renewables, specifically wind, at the expense of reducing the nuclear power generation capacity that would best meet future energy needs. Independent analysis (Brouillette, 2013) has shown that, among the available supply mix choices, a greater emphasis on nuclear, such as in the previous 2010 LTEP, is a much better route to achieving the current plan’s stated objectives.

The consequence is that, far from being “clean, reliable and affordable,” the 2013 LTEP supply mix represents a decision:
  • against a greener electricity system;
  • against greater system reliability;
  • against the lowest-cost solution for ratepayers;
  • against growth in Ontario’s economy; and,
  • against a better footing from which to build Ontario’s energy future.

The 2013 LTEP infers that the Green Economy Act (Ontario 2009) is responsible for the phase-out of coal and associated GHG reductions. Yet, the true enabler of the coal phase-out has been nuclear refurbishment and new natural gas capacity. Together along with the recent recession, they have removed 85 per cent of the CO2 emissions from Ontario’s electrical generation system since 2005 – a reduction of 25 megatonnes/year...
Please continue reading Rethinking Ontario’s Long-Term Energy Plan | CCRE Commentary (.pdf)

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