how to sell an industrial wind turbine

The lovely thing about policies such as 60% renewables by 2030, and 100% carbon-free by 2045, is they provide easy messages to broadcast.

In my previous post I quoted David Roberts', "in what is effectively a climate Dark Ages in the US, California is carrying a torch." I've argued the state hasn't accomplished much to date, its additions of variable renewable energy resources (vRES) had been chunky and the rapid addition of solar over the past 5 years is unlikely to be sustained. My intent with the post was to show the path to 60% is not clear, but it's a lot narrower without broadening the connections with other states. Cost concerns are better addressed in this twitter thread, within which Cody Hill neatly summarizes the looming issues:

1. In-state wind is essentially built out already, leaving practically nothing but solar to build locally, which leads to major value deflation 

2. The fossil fleet is already struggling to stay solvent, and it is unclear what the best option is to maintain resource adequacy

California's goal is simple, but problematic.

Australia's former Prime Minister tried to sell a National Energy Guarantee (NEG) that was not simple - and that was a problem for him. I liked it a lot more than policies like 60% renewable, but The Australian noted, "Malcolm Turnbull risks all with NEG policy"

And then he was gone. Replaced by Scott Morrison (seen in "This is Coal").
New Prime Minister Morrison appointed Angus Taylor as energy minister (seen here addressing a sparse crowd at a 2013 National Wind Power Fraud Rally).

I find this astounding. I've been raising the alarm on the impact of industrial wind policy on Ontario rates for many years (ie.), and ran a blog for Wind Concerns Ontario for about 18 months. I understood the general population's support for renewables which appeared in poll after pool, but it appears that support may be a mile wide but less than an inch deep.

regarding flexibility

There is a lot being written electricity storage these days, and capacity markets, and the integration of variable renewable energy resources. Most of the material originates with lawyers, philosophers, sales people, consultants, politicians and other economists. I invite you to listen to a professional engineer and system operator, very carefully, for 10 minutes.

The system operator is Leonard Kula P. Eng.,Vice-President, Market & System Operations and Chief Operating Officer of Ontario's IESO. If low greenhouse gas emissions are a genuine goal, the messages are pertinent far beyond Ontario. Over the first 7 months of 2017 the IESO shows ~2.8 terawatt-hours (TWh) generated by natural gas-fueled suppliers, which is only about 3.5% of all generation. The output from gas is down over 60% from the same period in 2016, which should push the greenhouse gas intensity of IESO grid generation down to around 15 kilograms CO2e per megawatt-hour - superb for grids that aren't entirely in jurisdictions blessed with plentiful hydro-electric generation sites. From a low emissions standpoint Ontario's system operator might be considered THE system operator.

Lower gas use is one characteristic of Ontario's electricity system of late.

A less positive characteristic is rising curtailment of contracted supply - notably from wind.

While most curtailment looks to be due to surplus generation, either globally or in particular regions of the grid, there is another operational aspect of curtailment closely linked to the decline in gas generation.

Earlier this year I ended a post, Can Wind and Solar be significant contributors to a low emission electricity system, with:

...many commentators...have been skeptical about the ability to operate the grid with little of the gas generation (and previously coal) online, and ready for ramping. I believe Ontario's actual operators of the system - the ones who do it on a daily basis - have a story to tell. That story would likely include improved forecasting, revised wind turbine (and perhaps solar panel) regulation to provide a programmed reactive power element, and rationalized market bid rules forcing the curtailment of wind and solar output prior to impacting nuclear units.
It is variable renewable energy systems that need to be flexible.

Kula indicates the way to make variable renewable energy systems flexible is by curtailing their output.

We added the ability to dispatch the variable generation facilities that are connected to the grid in 2013, and they are very fast acting resources. At times we have to reduce the output of these facilities to go ahead and manage congestions and/or surplus conditions, and once they dispatched down they are very quick and flexible to be dispatched back up.

The IESO's Kula spoke at the 2017 Stakeholder Summit. The IESO requires you register before viewing the recordings (it's a painless process). The section I am addressing is the panel on "Building Flexibility into the Electricity System". While I highly recommend the 10 minutes at the start of the panel in which Kula delivers his presentation , Rob Coulbeck is also worth listening to, as is the Q & A session.

Diesel and coal; standards and bans

Alberta's coal-fired power plant operators are planning to cheaply convert plants to burn natural gas. National emissions standards should not be relaxed to extend the life of what will still be high-emission power plants.

Europe votes for stricter pollution laws on power plants | Power Engineering

Power plants in the EU will have to cut the amount of toxic pollutants such as nitrogen oxides they emit under new rules approved by a majority of member states.

Friday’s decision imposes stricter limits on emissions of pollutants such as nitrogen oxide, sulphur dioxide, mercury and particulate matter from large combustion plants in Europe.
The European Power Plant Suppliers Association (EPPSA) said they welcomed the move by the Industrial Emissions Directive (IED) Article 75 Committee members on the Best Available Techniques Reference Document for Large Combustion Plants (LCP BREF).
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Several countries which are heavily reliant on coal, such as Poland, Bulgaria, Germany and the Czech Republic, were opposed to the changes.
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National authorities will be able to use a derogation, or form of exemption, when costs would be disproportionate compared with the environmental benefits, while respecting environmental safeguards

...EPPSA also said it believes that for most of the existing LCPs, the implementation of the conclusions are economically and technically feasible through the state-of-the-art technologies currently available in the market.

Some history from the United States indicates the saving of some emissions reductions, such as mercury, may not justify the costs, whereas the reduction of others do - often in conjunction with reducing mercury. Courts ruled the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) had not properly considered compliance costs, in 2015, but did not require the rule rescinded and subsequently rejected attempts to nullify the standard. Meanwhile, most plants had complied with the rule - or closed.

aside: India also introduced standards - but not the enforcement of standards.

The new EU power plant emissions regulations appear to borrow wisely from the American experience.

For an example of negative outcome due to policies designed solely to encourage one fuel/outcome, one might look to Europe's experience with diesel in automobiles - as Maximilian Auffhammer has done in Save the California Waiver! How a “little” California vehicle standard prevented an urban “airmaggedon”: