Sunday, October 20, 2013

Ontairo's Engineers on The Real Cost of Electrical Energy

The Real Cost of Electrical Energy is a presentation prepared by the Ontario Society of Professional Engineers.

Summary of figures in OSPE presentation
I've always felt delighted when I see some of the themes I've developed in my work reflected back.

I've often linked capacity factors and levelized unit pricing, quite noticeably in The High Costs of Ontario's very provincial electricity debacle.

I had constructed a spreadsheet calculator that I posted thinking it might help some people commenting on the province's long-term energy plans.

I just tried my calculator out for the fictitious all gas scenario [1], and I got $63 (with gas at $4/MMBtu).

If you were to compare the price of simply gas to something else, why not compare it to something else plus gas instead of something else plus storage?

If it's because of carbon emissions, include an implied cost of carbon to justify the higher cost options.

The following chart is a slight revision to one shown in my LTEP Tools: Calculating deception.  My work has shown by far the cheapest low-carbon choice is nuclear (refurbishing existing reactors first, new build second).
Nuclear also provides a hedge against rising gas prices.

Calculations contained here assume gas at $5/MMBtu  (other assumptions shown in the calculator)

[1]  I set other capacities to 1, as I didn't set up the spreadsheet to avoid "divide by zero" errors.

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