Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Mr. Premier, 135 is greater than 80

Green energy costs will drop: McGuinty | Toronto & GTA | News | Toronto Sun

Here's what Ontario's premier said:
“Think about the original price of a calculator — of a VCR, a DVD player, a flat screen TV, or a cell phone,” McGuinty said, standing in front of three electric cars.
“What happened to the price of our technologies over time? With innovation and imagination on the part of people, we found a way to bring those costs down. Whether we’re talking about wind turbines, solar panels or electric cars, we know which way those costs are going.”
It is nice to take successful technologies to illustrate reduced costs with increased production, but most expensive products fail. A responsible energy policy probably wouldn't continue to throw money at things that shows no indication of being successful in any market.

A Cod Piece - Save the BOFFFs

Putting the Cod Back in Cape Cod - NYTimes.com

A couple of weeks ago I read of a new study providing some optimism regarding increased populations of Atlantic cod:
The Atlantic cod population is showing signs of a comeback, decades after a high-profile collapse that had a calamitous impact on fishing communities. 
Andrew Revkin's piece today included some video related to the possibility of a future cod fishery around Cape Cod.

Manufacturers Drove 2009's Reduction in Electricity Demand

Producers cutting back on power use | Pulp and Paper Canada

"In Ontario at least, industry's energy use took a dive along with the economy, says Alexandra Campbell, spokesperson for Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), which operates the province's electricity system.

"During the recession, industrial demand went down from 10 to 30%. Since 2009, the industrial load has gone back up about 10%," she says.

While reduced production does impact energy consumption, there have been other factors at play across Canada.

"Power demand doesn't exactly mirror what's happening in the economy," Campbell says, pointing out that usage from residential, commercial and some smaller industries stayed relatively the same during the downturn."


Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Bavarian Business Survey Shows Electricity Pricing Concerns

DIHK Survey: High Energy Costs Obstacle for German Competitiveness « German Energy Blog

According to a study published in July by the economic research and consulting company Prognos AG on behalf of the Bavarian business association vbw, electricity prices will rise by 53% für non-energy intensive industries and by 41% for energy-intensive industries between 2010 and 2025.
From the linked article, via Google translation:

Associated with getting higher CO2 emissions have a negative effect on the climate of Germany and Bavaria. In Bavaria, caused by the generation of CO2 emissions increase from 2010 to 2023 to about eight million tonnes to 15 million tons.

The German reduction target of minus 40 percent between 1990 and 2020 can probably be achieved just yet. Because of the specifications by the European Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), the additional emissions in the German electricity but must be offset by a reduction in other ETS States. That has a price increase of CO2 allowances to follow.



The new strategy costs more and it emits more.

A Vermont View Of Canadian Electricity Export Plans

Canadian power brokers look to transmit electricity to points south

According to Hydro-Quebec’s 2009-2013 Strategic Plan, Hydro-Quebec Production’s net exports in 2008 accounted for 8 percent of their sales volume (C$977 million) but 32 percent of the company’s net income. By 2013, it continues, Hydro-Quebec Production’s net exports will actually drop in net revenue to $915 million–“export volume will increase significantly…while the average price of exports will fall, given the forecast price of natural gas”–but that will comprise 12 percent of their sales volume and 38 percent of Hydro-Quebec’s net income.
According to the import/export reporting of Canada's National Energy Board, net revenues dropped below $830 million already, in 2010.
And it was down again over the first 5 months of 2011.

Monday, August 8, 2011

Monbiot Responds to Goodall

Greens must not prioritise renewables over climate change | George Monbiot and Chris Goodall | Environment | guardian.co.uk


'When the government's statutory advisers propose a shorter timescale for cutting emissions than one of Britain's leading greens, we should ask ourselves some hard questions about our priorities.'

Saturday, August 6, 2011

Demand Records in Multiple Electricity Systems

Reddy Kilowatt Works Up a Sweat - NYTimes.com
But this summer, the Midwest Independent System Operator, which covers an area from Michigan to Manitoba to the Dakotas, blew through its record on July 20. That system serves about 40.3 million people.
Just to the east, the PJM Interconnection, which covers parts of 13 states and a population of 58 million people, set its record the following day. Both of those systems managed with little difficulty.
The Southwest Power Pool, which covers parts of nine states, including Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and part of Texas, with a population of 15.5 million, set records on Monday and Tuesday, and repeatedly asked for customer help in limiting consumption in the hot afternoons.

And more trouble in Texas due to ERCOT's isolation:

It was hit hard this week, and by Thursday it had declared that conservation was critical and rotating blackouts were a possibility. Power prices on the spot market jumped to 100 times their normal levels.

Friday, August 5, 2011

Dr. James Hansen + Ontario Politics

Dr. James Hansen is a very active scientist/citizen. Hansen has not only been unwavering in his opposition to coal-fired electricity generation, he's also stepped it up and even managed to get arrested at protest as he approaches his 8th decade on the planet. Hansen is also influential in policies dealing with 'black carbon' - a recent focus of Ontario's Environmental Commissioner.
Ontario, my province, has, since the summer of 2003, a policy to phase out coal-use by 2015 (now it's 2014, as promised by the man after he promised a 2007 date to get elected, in the fall of 2003, over the evil people - an all-party commission - that claimed 2015 was the practical date).

Thursday, August 4, 2011

India Reaffirms Nuclear Future and Private Firms Want In On the Business Too

ONGC Plans Nuclear Plants in India, Starts Uranium Exploration

Asia's third-biggest economy reaffirmed plans to boost nuclear power generation about 13-fold by 2030 to bridge an energy shortfall after conducting a safety review that was triggered by Japan's Fukushima disaster.

Monday, August 1, 2011

U.S. EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2011

U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis

Some quotes:

More recently, the economic recession in 2008 and 2009 caused a significant drop in electricity demand. As a result, the lower demand projected for the near term in the AEO2011 Reference case again results in excess generating capacity. Capacity that is currently under construction is completed in the Reference case, but only a limited amount of additional capacity is built through 2025. In 2025, capacity growth and demand growth are in balance again, and they grow at similar rates through 2035.
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...geothermal resources triples as a result of technology advances that make previously marginal sites attractive for development, as well as increasing the resources available at existing geothermal sites.
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...generation from biomass more than triples from 2009 to 2035, when it accounts for 39 percent of total nonhydroelectric renewable electricity generation.

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Because the Federal PTC expires at the end of 2012, however, 73 percent of the overall increase in wind capacity (18.2 gigawatts) occurs between 2009 and 2012. From 2012 through 2035, only an additional 6.9 gigawatts of wind capacity is added.