Thursday, August 22, 2013

MISO board frets over generation losses expected by 2016

"Whether the wolf is on the porch or in the room, it's damn close to where we're sitting"
Another jurisdiction sees a capacity crunch approaching

In addition to 6.5 GW of known retirements -- many of which were initiated by new federal environmental rules -- another 4.5 GW of generation is mothballed and expected to be retired for environmental or economic reasons.
As generators representing another 200 MW have not responded to the survey, those are also assumed to be retired, Moeller said.
"I'm not prepared to cry wolf, but the conditions are such that there may be a wolf at the door," Moeller said. "There's a full moon, there's howling, and indications are that there may in fact be a wolf."
A male speaker who was not identified to conference call listeners added: "Whether the wolf is on the porch or in the room, it's damn close to where we're sitting, regardless of where the wall is."
MISO expects about 2,400 MW of new build generation to be brought online across its footprint by the summer of 2016.
Assuming no load growth, MISO could be short 3,000 MW of generation needed to meet its minimum 14.2% planning reserve margin by 2016, Moeller said. Assuming 0.8% load growth, the potential shortage could be as much as 5,000 MW, and assuming 1.4% growth, the shortage could be 7,000 MW, he said.
"We have not operated at those [levels of] minimum requirements since the late 1960s," Moeller said.

No comments:

Post a Comment