Monday, August 12, 2013

Ontario's FIT role model Germany braces itself for another renewables levy hike

"At least offshore wind cannot be blamed for the rise."

An industrial wind industry magazine notes the coming hike in Germany's renewables surcharge for 2014 (maybe they picked up on it from our recent post), and stakes out arguments that the fault is not due to offshore wind, which isn't getting constructed anywhere near as quickly as expected

Germany braces itself for renewables levy hike | Windpower Monthly:
GERMANY: Germany's renewables levy looks set to rise following a fall in wholesale electricity prices to EUR 33/MWh, a historically low level.
Electricity prices are unlikely to rise while lignite and coal generation benefit from negligibly low CO2 emissions allowance prices.
The consequence is likely to be another hike in Germany's renewables levy in 2014 of up to 30%. 
Graph originally posted here
The wind industry could also argue it isn't due to onshore wind - which did add capacity but has seen lower production over the first 7 months of 2013 anyway.

Aside from costs now being much more heavily skewed to solar (which is producing ~5% of Germany's electricity) while wind remains primarily moribund (it provides 8% of the total, but has grown much more slowly than solar or biomass for several years - for good reason)

There's no new ground covered in this recent worry about the EEG for 2014 - most information on the causes was in my September 2012 overview of a number of stories; Deutsche Bank Sees Germany's renewables surcharge over 10 cents/kWh (US) by 2014

Factoring in taxes applied on top of the EEG, and the currency exchange with the now higher valued Euro, there is a good chance the 10 cents CDN, per kilowatt hour, will be hit for 2014.

For 5% of generation from solar, maybe 8% from wind - coming with increased hard coal use, increased natural gas consumption, and an emissions intensity likely more than 4 times higher than Ontario's.

I'm still missing how this is indicative of a role model.

Related original content site aritcle: Electricity Sector Lessons from Ontario and Germany

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