Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Conservation in Ontario: the graph data

UPDATE July 18:
The graphs I note a discrepancy for in the initial post are for different things.
The first is consumption Per Capita - which must include commercial and industrial consumption OR it would need to indicate there is less than one person to a household.

I work with data and sometimes we discuss the poor data design, and data management practices, related to energy reporting in Ontario.

A theme being pushed by Ontario's Ministry of Energy this week is conservation.  In providing background for claims on conservation, the ministry provided:
From energy.gov.on.caenergy.gov.on.ca:
Sources: Natural Resources Canada and Ontario Energy Board
Since 1990, average household electricity consumption has declined by almost 25 per cent, representing about $350 in savings each year for the average household, based on current electricity costs.
Look at that graph carefully, keeping in mind 12,000kWh in 1990, <10,000 in 2013, and separate sourcing from NRC and the OEB.

Previously Ontario had a Chief Conservation Officer, before the position was rolled into the rest of the Ontario Power Authority.  They showed higher demand in 1990, and a drop from ~12,000kWh to ~10,000 would have occurred since only 2007- if the numbers are comparable.


Figure 3.2 from Ontario's Chief Energy Conservation Officer's Annual Report 2008


Why does data quality appear to be degrading?

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My skepticism regarding the current promotion of conservation is displayed in Nothing is NOT better than Junk Generation

Parker Gallant has an article on the same topic: Energy Minister Chiarelli: Bringing Ontario a New Energy Vision

Postscript (July 18):

I should have done the leg-work before I first posted without seeking out the best data I knew of, which is the Ontario Energy Board's Annual Yearbook of Electricity Distributors.  The data is compiled from reporting by local distribution companies and I have summed up the "Statistics by Customer Class" tab or each year's spreadsheet to calculate figures on average residential consumption.
I also showed the total as a percentage of what the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) reports as Ontario Demand - mainly because I thought residential demand was closer to 40% of total Ontario demand and wanted to note the discrepancy.

No data is perfect.
The data used for the last graph is here.

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